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Proposed Alternative Forms of Development - for Advisory Committee discussion

Date: 12/11/09

Thoughts on Alternative Patterns of Development
Oct. 29, 2009; Rev. Nov. 10, 2009
REVISED to Include Additional Patterns
from Workshop Discussion, Oct. 29, 2009
(See Addendum, p. 15)
 
Introduction
The Gorham East-West Corridor Feasibility Study area is within Maine’s largest metropolitan area. By definition, a metropolitan area is anchored by one or more core communities with 50,000 or more population and includes the surrounding communities that are economically and socially tied to the core communities, as measured by commuting patterns.[1]
For the last century the overall pattern of settlement in the U.S., including Maine, has been described as a two-part “centralization-decentralization.” That is, there has been a continuous migration of population into metropolitan areas (centralization) as people leave job-depleted rural regions and move to metro areas where there are more economic opportunities. And then, within metropolitan areas, there has been a migration outward from the core communities into the suburbs and exurbs, typically within 30-45 minutes of the job centers (decentralization).
Both parts of this pattern are important to the Gorham East-West transportation study. The centralization of Maine’s population into metropolitan areas will continue to help drive economic and population growth in southern Maine. The amount of ongoing decentralization to the suburban and rural territories around the core communities will continue to shape transportation and other demands on the region and its communities.
The rapid geographical expansion of the Portland metropolitan area (now known as the municipally-based Portland-South Portland-Biddeford NECTA – see footnote 1) illustrates the decentralization of growth that has dominated the region for the last several decades. In 1970, the Portland metropolitan area consisted of 9 communities (Portland, South Portland, Westbrook, Falmouth, Cape Elizabeth, Cumberland, Yarmouth, Gorham, and Scarborough). By 1990, the boundaries encompassed 18 communities in Cumberland County and four in York County. And the 2000 Census showed Cumberland County and northern York County to be economically fused, and the metro area was expanded to 41 municipalities, including 23 in Cumberland County, 16 in York County, and two in Oxford County. 
This vast outward expansion of metropolitan boundaries is the hallmark of the pattern that between 1970 and 2000 came to be known as “sprawl.” During this period, within the Cumberland County portion of the metro area, 29% of all new housing units were built in the cities of Portland, South Portland, and Westbrook; 45% in the suburbs of Cape Elizabeth, Cumberland, Falmouth, Freeport, Gorham, Scarborough, Windham, and Yarmouth; and 25% in the next tier of suburban and exurban towns in the metro area (Baldwin, Casco, Gray, Naples, North Yarmouth, Pownal, Raymond, and Standish). The trend is clear.
Within the metropolitan area, the portion that is “urbanized” also has spread. “Urbanized” means an area that is settled at 1000 or more people per square mile plus any adjacent area settled at 500 or more people per square mile[2]. As of the 2000 Census, the Portland urbanized area consisted of portions of 15 cities and towns (Portland, South Portland, Westbrook, Cape Elizabeth, Biddeford, Cumberland, Falmouth, Freeport, Gorham, North Yarmouth, Old Orchard Beach, Saco, Scarborough, Windham and Yarmouth).[3] This urbanized area had a population of 188,080, or 56% of the Portland-South Portland-Biddeford metro area’s total population of 333,624.
The accompanying map shows the Census-defined Portland urbanized area.
Conversely, fully 44% of the metro population – more than 145,000 -- lived outside of the urbanized area. Thus, even as the urbanized area was expanding, rural numbers were growing, setting up the next round of urbanization.
 
The Evolving Pattern of Settlement
 
Through the first half of the 20th Century, the metropolitan region was anchored by the central city of Portland, with smaller downtowns or village centers in many surrounding communities. Fairly compact neighborhoods – typically about 0.5-mile in diameter -- were clustered near transportation facilities (ports, trolley lines, intersections of major roads) or near factories, such as textile and paper mills. A majority of the population lived close to a range of everyday goods and services within the community they lived. Rural lands were largely intact. Downtown Portland served as the regional retail and distribution hub, while smaller downtowns or neighborhood centers in most communities served everyday needs. Workers were split between those who worked in manufacturing, agricultural, and other jobs in the same community where they lived and those who commuted into the central business district of Portland by trolley, bus or auto. 
For a variety of reasons, this pattern faded in the second half of the century. Traditional industries closed their doors; the economy shifted toward service production and national and global markets; incomes rose, as did the value of urban real estate; improved roads, auto-oriented shopping centers, and two-car families created the opportunities to open up a widening circle of rural lands to development; and automobile travel, already prevalent by the 1950s, became dominant. Bus service and ridership dropped precipitously.
The result is a spread-out pattern of settlement that depends less on either the core communities or traditional village centers for goods and services. Downtown Portland and other centers remain as identifiable places but had to adapt to the rising retail dominance of suburban and highway-oriented shopping centers. Beginning in the 1970s, zoning ordinances codified and helped perpetuate this spread-out pattern, often doubling and tripling the minimum lot size requirements for residential development. The table on the next page summarizes residential density requirements in 11 suburbs in the Portland region as of the 1990s and early 2000s.
 
 
 
 
 
Table 1. Densities governing single-family lots in 11 suburbs in the Portland metro area
 
GROWTH AREAS
RURAL AREAS
 
With public sewer or water or both
On-site sewer and water
With public sewer or water or both
On-site sewer and water
No. of named zoning districts
33
16
6
15
Max. density:
Mean
Median
Range
 
1 du*/36,150 SF
1 du/20,000 SF
1 du/10,000 to 87,120 SF
 
1 du/56,558 SF
du/50,000 SF
1 du/20,000 to 87,120 SF
 
1 du/115,933 SF
1 du/108,900 SF
1 du/20,000 to 130,680 SF
 
1 du/97,798 SF
1 du/ 87,120 SF
1 du/40,000 to 200,000 SF
* du = Dwelling Unit
Note: State of Maine law establishes a maximum density of 1 unit per 20,000 SF of gross land area where on-site underground wastewater disposal is used. See 12 MRSA sec. 4807.
 
Sources: Zoning ordinances of individual municipalities, in effect as of March 2004.
 
orthomap_MGISISA1FSMAP126722612788More recently, some communities have amended their ordinances to allow higher densities of residential development in specified districts, but it is too early to tell whether these changes –without a companion requirement to discourage development in rural districts – will alter patterns of settlement within communities.

Figure 2. Contemporary low density pattern of suburban development

  Commercial development outside of major downtowns has been of similar low intensity, usually at floor area ratios (FAR) of under 0.2 – meaning that for the typical suburban commercial development, the lot on which the development occurs has five times more land area than total building floor area (typically used for parking). The regional Maine Mall area has an FAR of 0.23. In contrast, the pattern in small town downtowns tends to be in the 0.6 to 0.8 range, or three to four times more intense than typical strip shopping centers; in downtown Portland, the overall average is about 2.3 – ten times more intense than the Maine Mall area. The low-intensity of suburban commercial centers has helped to spread out development and increase auto dependency.

 

The process of spreading out has created, in many large metropolitan areas, a new type of low-density job and mixed-use center. This has been dubbed “Edge City,”[4] because it has many of the land uses found in a downtown – retailers, offices, recreational facilities, homes, civic buildings – but downtowns and edge cities otherwise bear little resemblance to each other. Downtown activities are tied together by sidewalks and short blocks, while in the Edge City they are tied together by freeways; and downtowns tend to be a half-mile to a mile in diameter with recognizable boundaries, while the Edge City is several miles end to end – and the “end” may not be a recognizable boundary. Generally, Edge Cities are auto-dependent and not pedestrian-friendly. In the Greater Portland region, the Maine Mall – Payne Road area is approaching “Edge City” proportions.
Initial Thoughts on Possible Metropolitan Patterns of Development
Nationally and in Maine there is a broad discussion about the most efficient and sustainable metropolitan form of growth and development. As briefly summarized above, the Portland metropolitan area has evolved from a form characterized by a large regional center (focused on the Portland peninsula) with multiple smaller, compact centers serving neighborhoods and individual communities, to a spread-out form characterized by the out-migration of population, low-density suburban residential development, and highway-oriented commercial development at low floor area ratios. This spread-out form is still in a relatively early stage compared to other regions of the Northeast, providing us with the opportunity to consider other forms of growth.
Because the regional form of growth and development has direct impact on transportation demands, traffic safety, and quality of life measures, the Gorham East-West Corridor Feasibility Study will test and compare the differences between the effects of the now dominant low-density “spread-out” pattern, extrapolated to 2035, against an alternative pattern of growth and development. The purpose of the October 29 land use workshop is to allow participants to understand what potential alternative patterns could be. The following are possible themes; the selected alternative to test may be any one of these, or another that participants may describe during the upcoming workshop, or a hybrid of them.
Disclaimer!: This initial presentation of possible alternative forms is meant to stimulate discussion. The descriptions of the forms and the suggested numerical standards used to give these forms greater meaning are entirely subject to change – that is the purpose of the workshops. And the descriptions should not in any case be taken as complete; for example, they do not address final details such as performance standards or the elements of design that might be associated with any of them.
Our Starting Point – Low Density Form: To recap the existing pattern for a point of reference and as described in the first part of this document, the “Low Density” pattern is the product of the decentralization of population and jobs from the core of the metropolitan area to suburbs and exurbs, causing the metropolitan boundaries themselves to expand. The decentralization occurs at low residential densities of development and low commercial intensities, relying on the automobile as a virtually exclusive means to reach needed destinations, whether for work, shopping, services, or recreation, and as a supplement to school busing. 
We define “low density” as residential development at less than 2 units per acre, and frequently at less than 1 or even 0.5 unit per acre; employment-related development at less than 10 jobs per acre; and commercial development at less than a floor area ratio (FAR) of 0.3.
Within this pattern, central cities continue to lose population but retain their roles as fairly intense financial, educational, cultural, and business service centers. Communities that arose independently of the central cities, based on their own industrial bases – Westbrook, Yarmouth, and Freeport, for example -- continue to have their own smaller centers even as they have been absorbed into the larger metropolitan region. But retail and office development continues to migrate outward to highway-oriented locations, both within the boundaries of service center communities (such as the Maine Mall area in South Portland, outer Congress St. and the Brighton Ave. – Rand Rd. area in Portland, and County Road in Westbrook) and in the suburbs. The populations of suburban and exurban towns within the metropolitan area grow at significant rates while the populations of core communities are flat to declining. 
At present, in the Cumberland County portion of the Portland metro area, it is estimated that the distribution of jobs (within the study area) and population (within the whole of Cumberland County) among the urban center communities, inner suburbs, and outer suburbs is:
 
Urban center communities-- These include Portland, So. Portland, Westbrook (and, for population, Brunswick). They presently have a 65% share of jobs and a 45% share of population. Their share of population has been dropping steadily (was 51% in 1990). From 1970 to 2000, the urban center communities claimed 29% of new housing units in Cumberland County.
 
Inner suburbs--These include Cape Elizabeth, Cumberland, Falmouth, Freeport, Gorham, Scarborough, Yarmouth, Windham. They presently have 30% of jobs and 34% of population. Their share of population has been increasing steadily (was 30% in 1990). From 1970 to 2000, the inner suburbs claimed 45% of new housing units in Cumberland County.
 
Outer suburbs -- These include Gray, New Gloucester, Pownal, Raymond, Standish, and (for population purposes) the Bridgton area and, in York County, Buxton and Hollis.  They presently have 5% of jobs and 21% of population. Their share of population has been increasing steadily (was 18% in 1990). From 1970 to 2000, the outer suburbs claimed 25% of new housing units in Cumberland County.
 
Within the respective municipal boundaries of the growing suburbs, it is estimated that rural and other low density residential zones receive 60%+ of new residential development, while residential development within locally designated “growth” areas account for less than 40% of growth.
In this Low Density metropolitan form, as of 2008 only about 20% of jobs within the study area are located in districts (as defined by transportation analysis zones, called TAZs) with 25 or more jobs per acre – the minimum frequently cited as necessary to support a moderate level of bus service -- and virtually all of these districts are located in the central city of Portland. The distribution of jobs[5] in the Low Density pattern as of 2008 is:
·      14% at 50+ jobs/acres, all in Portland and most on Portland’s peninsula
·        5% at 25-49 jobs/acre, nearly all in Portland, plus one TAZ in downtown Biddeford
·      15% at 10-24.9 jobs/acre, including several TAZs in the Maine Mall area
·      14% at 5-9.9 jobs/acre
·      52% at under 5 jobs/acre
In this Low Density metropolitan form, three-quarters of residences are settled at densities of under four units per acre, including 62% at fewer than two units per acre. Only about 14% of dwellings are in TAZs with residential densities of 7 or more units per acre, the minimum frequently cited as necessary to support bus service on a 30-minute schedule. The distribution of dwelling units[6] (per gross acre) is:
·      6% at 15+ units/ac, virtually all in Portland plus a few TAZs in Biddeford and Saco
·      8% at 7-14.9 units/ac, in Portland, Biddeford, Saco, So. Portland, and OOB
·      11% at 4-6.9 units/ac, in the above communities plus Westbrook
·      13% at 2 to 3.9 units/ac, including some TAZs in Cape Elizabeth, Scarborough, and Gorham
·      62% at fewer than 2 units/ac
A number of competing forces will continue to push growth outward, but others on the horizon may slow the trend. For example, an aging population, energy costs, and the needs of a knowledge-based economy (in which “knowledge” workers tend to favor energetic urban settings and combined live/work environments) may nudge the pattern of growth toward centers. On the other hand, technology, the lower costs of “Greenfield” development, and the search for affordable land will continue to push growth toward the exurbs.
With the Low Density metropolitan form as our reference point, following are four possible alternative forms that the region may think are worth pursuing. They are arrayed along a continuum, with the next most dispersed presented first and the most compact presented last. In each case we present numerical standards that could serve as “rules” for the re-distribution of growth over the next 25 or more years; these are presented in Tables 2 and 3 for discussion at the October 29 workshop.
Modified Low Density Form: The Modified Low Density Form refers to a form that includes pockets of compact nodes that develop as a result of zoning that allows innovative, more compact development within local growth areas. These nodes can be primarily single use (residential or commercial) or mixed use and can be new or existing nodes in which infill opportunities are encouraged and exploited, but the amount of growth in them represents a small share of total growth in a community or the region. While zoning is innovative in these nodes, allowing residential densities of at least 4-6 units per residential acre where public utilities are available and at least 1-2 units per acre otherwise, zoning in other portions of locally designated growth areas remains distinctly suburban in form (moderate to low densities of residential development, primarily single-purpose zoning districts, modest or no interconnections between new development and the rest of the circulation system); and zoning in rural districts continues to encourage low-density rural residential development. Representative of the Low Density Form Modified are recent zoning reforms in Scarborough (town and village center and traditional neighborhood development zoning districts) and Gorham (density transfer overlay district).
Regionally, the growth trend is the same as Low Density – i.e., continued out-migration of retail and office development and residential development. Within communities, development in compact nodes along with demographic trends that may favor such development has some effect on shares of development within locally designated growth areas, but a majority of both residential and commercial growth follows the Low Density form in location and design. The Modified form may include expanded performance standards to relieve certain effects of the low density pattern, especially to manage access onto and off arterials and major collectors and to reduce the visual impacts of linear, highway-oriented development.
Urban Preservation Form: The Urban Preservation Form enables the core urban communities – Portland, South Portland, and Westbrook (and, in York County, Biddeford, Saco and Old Orchard Beach) – to retain their current (2008) shares of jobs, population, and housing units in the metro area. By retaining their shares, their numbers of jobs, households, and population will grow in the same proportion as county or metropolitan-wide growth, reversing a decades-old trend. In this form, the core urban communities will claim a higher percentage of growth than in previous decades. Other communities in the region also will retain their shares, but this would represent a slowing of their growth compared with recent decades when they have been gaining shares.
Within the core urban communities, growth of both jobs and housing would be focused in areas that have the best chance of achieving the densities, diversity, and design of development that are friendly to multiple modes of travel. These thresholds include 50 jobs per acre, 6 to 12 dwelling units per residential acre, or a combination of jobs and dwellings per acre determined to be supportive of multiple modes; a jobs/housing ratio in the range of 1.3 to 1.5 either within specified neighborhoods or in neighborhood and employment centers that are closely linked in transportation corridors; sufficient mixes of compatible land uses to allow a reasonable internal capture of trips; and design that facilitates multiple modes of travel within and between neighborhoods.
Within communities outside of the core urban cities, the pattern of new development follows the Modified Low Density Form described above.
Community Centered Corridor Form: The Community Centered Corridor Form consciously directs most new commercial growth and a share of new residential growth into planned centers or nodes (existing and new) that are interspersed along or near transportation corridors. The planned centers include existing centers, where we would give careful thought to increasing infill opportunities; some represent a continued evolution of places like the Maine Mall area; many grow out of emerging centers, where we would give careful thought to how to design these centers; or they could be entirely new centers. A given center may be primarily commercial, primarily residential, or a mix, but together, these centers would achieve a jobs/housing ratio in the range of 1.3 to 1.5. A high percentage of new jobs projected for the region – 80% or more – and a significant share of new housing units – a third to 40% -- locate in these centers. 
The centers are located in each of the study area communities, and each community is likely to have multiple nodes. In this form, growth of suburban communities likely continues to outpace the core cities, but the cities do grow, and the growth in all communities is organized differently than under the Low Density or Modified Low Density forms. Compactness, densities and intensities of development in the centers increase as the corridor moves from outlying communities toward the center of the region, and from areas with limited public sewer and water lines to areas where these facilities are readily available. 
But all communities grow in closer alignment with transportation-land use best practices (with respect to design, jobs-housing balance, density, and accessibility). The result is a continuum of hamlets, small downtowns and nearby neighborhoods, larger and more urban centers, and the most intense urban center on Portland’s peninsula. The overall pattern of centers is similar to that envisioned by the PACTS Land Use Planning Guidelines published in 2005 (PACTS Transportation Project Land Use Policy: Implementation Guidelines). These guidelines refer to “compact planning areas”; a summary chart from that report is attached to this paper. Rural residential development still would be considerable but would not make up more than 25%-30% of new housing units regionally. Blocks of unfragmented rural lands separate many of the centers.  
Transit-Oriented Corridor Form: The Transit-Oriented Corridor form combines a more intense version of the Urban Preservation form and a more intense version of the Community Centered Corridor form. It envisions a smaller number of larger centers than in the Community Centered Corridor. The centers build around the concept of Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) and include both urban (more dense) TODs and neighborhood or town-scale TODs. These centers are located where public sewer and water are available and include a combination of existing centers that already function like a TOD or have infill opportunities, the conversion or continued evolution of suburban centers like the Maine Mall area and the Route 22-Spring Street area into TODs, emerging centers that could be shaped into TODs, and/or new, planned TODs.
Urban TODs strive for 50+ employees per acre, and job-generating land uses occupy a majority of the development. However, residential, public, and open space uses also are prominent, with residential uses at a density of 10 - 25 units per acre. Neighborhood TODs are primarily residential, which account for upward of 70% - 80% of the development, including open space amenities, but they also include some non-residential and public land uses. Depending on location, residential uses are at a density of 5-15 units per acre, and compatible job-generating land uses are upwards of 25 employees per acre.
The TODs account for a large share of both employment and housing growth in the region, with no more than 25% of either occurring outside of areas designated for transit-oriented development. The TODs are specifically designed to enable and to take advantage of transit opportunities.

 
 
TABLE 2. DISTRIBUTION OF JOB GROWTH BY INITIAL 4 ALTERNATIVE PATTERNS
 
 
Targeted shares of regional Job Growth1 in:
Within communities, shares of job growth in:
 
 
Range of minimum jobs/acre in compact growth nodes
 
 
 
 
Urban core communities
 
 
 
Inner suburbs
 
 
 
Outer suburbs
 
 
Compact growth nodes
Along transp. corridors outside of nodes
 
 
 
 
Elsewhere
 
Share as of 2008
 
66%
28%
6%
 
 
 
 
Modified Low Density
 
50% - 60%
30%-35%
5%-15%
40% - 50%
30% - 40%
15% - 20%
25+ in urban core;
10-25 in other cores
Urban Preservation
 
60% - 65%
25% - 30%
5% - 10%
80% in cities; 60% in suburbs
10% - 15% in cities; 
25% - 30% in suburbs
5% - 10% in cities;
10% - 15% in suburbs
50+ in urban cores;
10-25 in other cores
Community-Centered Corridor
60% - 65%